About Prematch Sports Prediction
How Our Predictions Work
How a pick is made
Every pick is on the match result. We take the odds for each outcome, remove the bookmaker margin and pick the outcome the market rates most likely. Our own records never change that choice. When the market prices both teams level, the call goes to the team with more head-to-head wins, then to the one with the better recent results.
A short analysis is then written from the match data we hold: the prices, head-to-head counts, recent results and the current season of the competition (table position where there is one, games won, drawn and lost, the last five results). It explains the pick but never changes it.
Every match on the site has a pick: a match is listed as soon as its prices are in and its pick is published.
Which result a pick is on
In football the pick is on the result after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, so a draw is one of the three outcomes and extra time never counts. The draw is the call when no team reaches 45% once the margin is removed, the draw itself is at most 33% and the favourite leads it by no more than 10 points.
In cricket the pick is on the match result, draw included where the format allows one. In ice hockey the pick is on the winner with overtime and the shootout included, and in basketball on the winner with overtime included, so neither has a draw. Volleyball has no draw either: the pick is on the team that wins the match.
Locked odds
A pick carries the odds on offer at the moment it is published. They are locked there and never edited, even though prices keep moving until the start. The other outcomes on a card show the latest price.
The odds on a card are playable: press another outcome to see its possible return on an example stake of 10.00. Nothing is saved, and a card is not a bet slip.
How results are settled
Once the final score is in, every pick is settled automatically as won, lost, push or void. A push means the scores finished level. Void means the match was abandoned, cancelled or ended with no result.
A match appears on the site only once its pick is published, so every match you see carries a pick. Past Calls keeps every published pick with its locked odds, win or lose, as our track record.
What the confidence means
The confidence starts from the chance the market gives our pick once the margin is removed. Our head-to-head record, recent results and each team's record in the current season can move it by up to 8 points, or 3 while either team has fewer than 5 completed matches, and never below the other team. It is not a promise: favourites can and do lose.
Where the data comes from
Fixtures, live scores, odds and results come from a sports data feed and update automatically. Kick-off times are shown in your local time.