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Prematch Sports Prediction

Bundesliga Finished

1. FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen Prediction

Our pick: Bayer 04 Leverkusen to win at 2.23, locked when this prediction was published. It was the market favourite with the bookmaker margin removed; the analysis below is written from match data.

1. FSV Mainz 05

vs

Mewa Arena (Mainz)

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

Result

Won

1. FSV Mainz 05 3 · Bayer 04 Leverkusen 4

Bayer 04 Leverkusen won

How our call settled

Our pick, Bayer 04 Leverkusen to win at locked odds 2.23, won. It was published with 46% confidence.

Before the start the best price on Bayer 04 Leverkusen to win had shortened from 2.23 to 2.205, so the market moved towards this pick after it was published.

Analysis

1. FSV Mainz 05 take on Bayer 04 Leverkusen in the Bundesliga on 10 October 2026. The bookmaker line makes Bayer 04 Leverkusen the favourite at 2.23, with 1. FSV Mainz 05 at 2.912 and the draw at 3.82.

Without the margin, the implied chance is 42.6% for Bayer 04 Leverkusen, 32.6% for 1. FSV Mainz 05 and 24.8% for the draw. Across all competitions combined, the pair have met 15 times since 2019: Bayer 04 Leverkusen won 10, 1. FSV Mainz 05 won 2 and 3 were drawn or undecided, the latest being a Bundesliga match on 28 February 2026.

We pick Bayer 04 Leverkusen to win at 46% confidence. The head-to-head record raised the market chance of 42.6% by 3.0 points, the most any such move is allowed. Recent results and line-ups are not available, so the figure stays well short of comfortable.

Match winner odds

90 minutes plus stoppage time

Updated

1 · 1. FSV Mainz 05 340.00
X · Draw 17.00
2 · Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2.23 Our pick

Best price for each outcome before the start; our pick shows its locked odds.

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