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Prematch Sports Prediction

Bundesliga Finished

Schalke 04 vs 1. FSV Mainz 05 Prediction

Our pick: 1. FSV Mainz 05 to win at 2.26, locked when this prediction was published. It was the market favourite with the bookmaker margin removed; the analysis below is written from match data.

Schalke 04

vs

Veltins-Arena (Gelsenkirchen)

1. FSV Mainz 05

Result

Won

Schalke 04 0 · 1. FSV Mainz 05 1

1. FSV Mainz 05 won

How our call settled

Our pick, 1. FSV Mainz 05 to win at locked odds 2.26, won. It was published with 39% confidence.

Before the start the best price on 1. FSV Mainz 05 to win had drifted from 2.26 to 2.445, so the market moved away from this pick after it was published.

Analysis

Schalke 04 meet 1. FSV Mainz 05 in the Bundesliga on 17 October 2026, and the market makes 1. FSV Mainz 05 the favourite at 2.26. Schalke 04 are priced at 3.05 and the draw at 3.54.

With the margin removed, the implied chance is 42.0% for 1. FSV Mainz 05, 31.1% for Schalke 04 and 26.8% for the draw. Across all competitions combined, the clubs have met 15 times since 2015, with Schalke 04 winning 9, 1. FSV Mainz 05 3 and 3 ending without a winner; the latest was a Bundesliga match on 5 May 2023.

We go with 1. FSV Mainz 05 to win at 39% confidence, because they are the favourite once the margin is removed. The head-to-head record leans to Schalke 04, so it lowered the 42.0% market chance by 2.7 points. Recent results, line-ups and team news are not available to us, so this remains a cautious call.

Match winner odds

90 minutes plus stoppage time

Updated

1 · Schalke 04 369.00
X · Draw 16.00
2 · 1. FSV Mainz 05 2.26 Our pick

Best price for each outcome before the start; our pick shows its locked odds.

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