UEFA Europa League Finished
Our pick: AC Sparta Prague to win at 1.35, locked when this prediction was published. It was the market favourite with the bookmaker margin removed; the analysis below is written from match data.
AC Sparta Prague 1 · Lillestrom 1
Match drawn
Our pick, AC Sparta Prague to win at locked odds 1.35, lost. It was published with 70% confidence, leaving a 30% chance for the other outcomes, and one of them came in.
Before the start the best price on AC Sparta Prague to win had drifted from 1.35 to 1.445, so the market moved away from this pick after it was published.
AC Sparta Prague are favoured at 1.35 against Lillestrom in the UEFA Europa League on 15 October 2026. Lillestrom are priced at 8.40 and the draw at 5.15.
With the bookmaker margin taken out, the implied chance is 70.3% for AC Sparta Prague, 18.4% for the draw and 11.3% for Lillestrom. We have no head-to-head record and no recent results for these clubs, so the view comes from the market alone.
AC Sparta Prague to win is our pick at 70% confidence, because they are the market favourite once the margin is removed. With nothing in the records to add, the 70.3% market chance was left unchanged. The lack of team news is the main risk, and Lillestrom could still spring a surprise.
90 minutes plus stoppage time
Updated
Best price for each outcome before the start; our pick shows its locked odds.
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Prediction: Olympiacos Piraeus to win 56% confidence
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Real Sociedad
Olympiacos Piraeus
Dinamo Zagreb
N.E.C.
Ararat - Armenia
AZ Alkmaar