Premier League Finished
Our pick: Arsenal to win at 1.39, locked when this prediction was published. It was the market favourite with the bookmaker margin removed; the analysis below is written from match data.
Arsenal 2 · Leeds United 1
Arsenal won
Our pick, Arsenal to win at locked odds 1.39, won. It was published with 71% confidence.
Before the start the best price on Arsenal to win had shortened from 1.39 to 1.38, so the market moved towards this pick after it was published.
Arsenal head the Premier League market for their meeting with Leeds United on 10 October 2026, at a short 1.39 against 7.90 for Leeds United. The implied chance is 68.3% for Arsenal, 19.6% for the draw and 12.0% for Leeds United.
Across all competitions combined, Arsenal have won 13 of 15 meetings since 2004 and Leeds United have won 0, with 2 ending without a winner. The latest was a Premier League match on 31 January 2026. No recent results are held for either club.
The pick is Arsenal to win at 71% confidence. The head-to-head record leans heavily to Arsenal and raised the market chance of 68.3% by 2.8 points. Team news is not available to us, and that gap is the main caveat.
90 minutes plus stoppage time
Updated
Best price for each outcome before the start; our pick shows its locked odds.
Prediction: Arsenal to win 68% confidence
Full prediction →
Stake 10.00 Possible return 14.00 Possible profit +4.00
Prediction: Bayern Munich to win 43% confidence
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Stake 10.00 Possible return 21.50 Possible profit +11.50
Prediction: Draw 28% confidence
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Stake 10.00 Possible return 33.60 Possible profit +23.60
Prediction: Manchester City to win 54% confidence
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Stake 10.00 Possible return 17.68 Possible profit +7.68
Everton
Bayern Munich
Ipswich Town
Nottingham Forest
Aston Villa
Manchester City