Ligue 1 Finished
Our pick: AS Monaco to win at 2.09, locked when this prediction was published. It was the market favourite with the bookmaker margin removed; the analysis below is written from match data.
Lorient 1 · AS Monaco 0
Lorient won
Our pick, AS Monaco to win at locked odds 2.09, lost. It was published with 46% confidence, leaving a 54% chance for the other outcomes, and one of them came in.
Before the start the best price on AS Monaco to win had shortened from 2.09 to 1.95, so the market moved towards this pick after it was published.
AS Monaco are favoured at 2.09 for the Ligue 1 encounter with Lorient on 18 October 2026, with Lorient at 3.50 and the draw at 3.44. The implied chance is 45.4% for AS Monaco, 27.6% for the draw and 27.1% for Lorient.
Across all competitions combined, AS Monaco lead 6 wins to 4 over 15 meetings since 2015, and 5 ended without a winner. The latest was in Ligue 1 on 16 January 2026. We have no recent results for either club.
The pick is AS Monaco to win, at 46% confidence. The market chance of 45.4% was raised by 1.0 points because the head-to-head record leans towards AS Monaco. As the record is thin and team news is not available, the main risk is something we cannot see.
90 minutes plus stoppage time
Updated
Best price for each outcome before the start; our pick shows its locked odds.
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Prediction: Fenerbahce to win 59% confidence
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Stade Brestois 29
Nice
Toulouse
Troyes AC
Sabah Baku
Borussia Dortmund
Fenerbahce
Slavia Prague