Ligue 1 Finished
Our pick: AS Monaco to win at 1.675, locked when this prediction was published. It was the market favourite with the bookmaker margin removed; the analysis below is written from match data.
AS Monaco 2 · Toulouse 2
Match drawn
Our pick, AS Monaco to win at locked odds 1.675, lost. It was published with 59% confidence, leaving a 41% chance for the other outcomes, and one of them came in.
Before the start the best price on AS Monaco to win had shortened from 1.675 to 1.616, so the market moved towards this pick after it was published.
AS Monaco are the favourites at odds of 1.675 for their Ligue 1 match with Toulouse on 10 October 2026. With the bookmaker margin removed, the implied chance is 56.7% for AS Monaco, 23.1% for the draw and 20.2% for Toulouse.
The head-to-head record across all competitions combined covers 15 meetings since 2016, of which AS Monaco won 8 and Toulouse 3, with 4 ending level or without a result. The latest was in Ligue 1 on 25 April 2026. No recent results are held for either side.
Our selection is AS Monaco to win, with 59% confidence. We take the market chance of 56.7% and add 1.9 points, because the head-to-head record leans to AS Monaco. The absence of team news is the main limitation here.
90 minutes plus stoppage time
Updated
Best price for each outcome before the start; our pick shows its locked odds.
Prediction: Toulouse to win 64% confidence
Full prediction →
Stake 10.00 Possible return 15.70 Possible profit +5.70
Prediction: Stade Brestois 29 to win 43% confidence
Full prediction →
Stake 10.00 Possible return 21.36 Possible profit +11.36
Prediction: Borussia Dortmund to win 72% confidence
Full prediction →
Stake 10.00 Possible return 13.20 Possible profit +3.20
Prediction: Fenerbahce to win 59% confidence
Full prediction →
Stake 10.00 Possible return 16.25 Possible profit +6.25
Troyes AC
Stade Brestois 29
Nice
Sabah Baku
Borussia Dortmund
Fenerbahce
Slavia Prague