Premier League Finished
Our pick: Aston Villa to win at 2.54, locked when this prediction was published. It was the market favourite with the bookmaker margin removed; the analysis below is written from match data.
Aston Villa 2 · Brentford 2
Match drawn
Our pick, Aston Villa to win at locked odds 2.54, lost. It was published with 36% confidence, leaving a 64% chance for the other outcomes, and one of them came in.
Before the start the best price on Aston Villa to win had drifted from 2.54 to 2.56, so the market moved away from this pick after it was published.
Aston Villa and Brentford meet in the Premier League on 10 October 2026, and the market gives Aston Villa only a narrow edge at 2.54. Their implied chance is 37.4%, while Brentford are on 35.3% at 2.688 and the draw on 27.3%.
Across all competitions combined, the two clubs have met 15 times since 2017. Brentford have won 6 of those and Aston Villa 4, with 5 producing no winner; the latest was a Premier League game on 1 February 2026. Recent results for both clubs are missing from our records.
Aston Villa to win is the pick, at 36% confidence. It comes from Aston Villa leading the market once the bookmaker margin is removed, with a chance of 37.4%. The head-to-head record leans to Brentford and lowered that figure by 1.0 points, and with team news not available the margin for error is wide.
90 minutes plus stoppage time
Updated
Best price for each outcome before the start; our pick shows its locked odds.
Prediction: Manchester City to win 54% confidence
Full prediction →
Stake 10.00 Possible return 17.68 Possible profit +7.68
Prediction: Aston Villa to win 80% confidence
Full prediction →
Stake 10.00 Possible return 12.20 Possible profit +2.20
Prediction: Draw 28% confidence
Full prediction →
Stake 10.00 Possible return 33.60 Possible profit +23.60
Prediction: Fulham to win 41% confidence
Full prediction →
Stake 10.00 Possible return 22.90 Possible profit +12.90
Manchester City
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Fulham