UEFA Champions League Finished
Our pick: Aston Villa to win at 1.725, locked when this prediction was published. It was the market favourite with the bookmaker margin removed; the analysis below is written from match data.
Aston Villa 6 · Fenerbahce 0
Aston Villa won
Our pick, Aston Villa to win at locked odds 1.725, won. It was published with 56% confidence.
Before the start the best price on Aston Villa to win had shortened from 1.725 to 1.605, so the market moved towards this pick after it was published.
Aston Villa are favoured at 1.725 against Fenerbahce in the UEFA Champions League on 14 October 2026. The draw is quoted at 3.80 and Fenerbahce at 4.74.
With the margin removed, the implied chance is 55.0% for Aston Villa, 25.0% for the draw and 20.0% for Fenerbahce. Across all competitions combined, the clubs have met once, on 22 January 2026 in the league stage of the UEFA Europa League, and Aston Villa won. Recent results are not available for either side.
Aston Villa to win is the pick, at 56% confidence, as they are the favourite once the margin is removed. The head-to-head record leans to Aston Villa and raised the 55.0% market chance by 1.2 points. That record is a single meeting, and with team news unseen the pick carries real uncertainty.
90 minutes plus stoppage time
Updated
Best price for each outcome before the start; our pick shows its locked odds.
Prediction: Fenerbahce to win 59% confidence
Full prediction →
Stake 10.00 Possible return 16.25 Possible profit +6.25
Prediction: Aston Villa to win 80% confidence
Full prediction →
Stake 10.00 Possible return 12.20 Possible profit +2.20
Prediction: Manchester City to win 54% confidence
Full prediction →
Stake 10.00 Possible return 17.68 Possible profit +7.68
Prediction: Borussia Dortmund to win 72% confidence
Full prediction →
Stake 10.00 Possible return 13.20 Possible profit +3.20
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