Premier League Finished
Our pick: Newcastle United to win at 2.10, locked when this prediction was published. It was the market favourite with the bookmaker margin removed; the analysis below is written from match data.
Newcastle United 0 · Aston Villa 1
Aston Villa won
Our pick, Newcastle United to win at locked odds 2.10, lost. It was published with 46% confidence, leaving a 54% chance for the other outcomes, and one of them came in.
Before the start the best price on Newcastle United to win had drifted from 2.10 to 2.19, so the market moved away from this pick after it was published.
Newcastle United are the market favourites for the Premier League game with Aston Villa on 17 October 2026, priced at 2.10. Their implied chance is 45.2%, while Aston Villa, at 3.22, are on 29.5% and the draw on 25.4%.
Across all competitions combined, the record is close: Newcastle United have won 6 of the 15 meetings since 2020 and Aston Villa 5, with 4 ending without a winner. The latest was an FA Cup match on 14 February 2026. Recent results are not available for either club.
The pick is Newcastle United to win, at 46% confidence. The head-to-head record leans towards Newcastle United and added a modest 0.5 points to the market chance of 45.2%. With team news not available, Aston Villa remain a live threat.
90 minutes plus stoppage time
Updated
Best price for each outcome before the start; our pick shows its locked odds.
Prediction: Manchester City to win 54% confidence
Full prediction →
Stake 10.00 Possible return 17.68 Possible profit +7.68
Prediction: Aston Villa to win 80% confidence
Full prediction →
Stake 10.00 Possible return 12.20 Possible profit +2.20
Prediction: Draw 28% confidence
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Stake 10.00 Possible return 33.60 Possible profit +23.60
Prediction: Fulham to win 41% confidence
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Stake 10.00 Possible return 22.90 Possible profit +12.90
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