La Liga Finished
Our pick: Atletico Madrid to win at 1.912, locked when this prediction was published. It was the market favourite with the bookmaker margin removed; the analysis below is written from match data.
Deportivo Alaves 1 · Atletico Madrid 2
Atletico Madrid won
Our pick, Atletico Madrid to win at locked odds 1.912, won. It was published with 53% confidence.
Before the start the best price on Atletico Madrid to win had shortened from 1.912 to 1.77, so the market moved towards this pick after it was published.
Deportivo Alaves and Atletico Madrid meet in La Liga on 10 October 2026. The market names Atletico Madrid as favourite at decimal odds of 1.912, an implied chance of 49.6%, with the draw at 25.9% and Deportivo Alaves at 24.5%.
Across all competitions combined, the sides have met 15 times since 2018: Atletico Madrid won 10, Deportivo Alaves won 2 and 3 ended level. The latest meeting was on 18 January 2026 in La Liga, while recent results for either club are missing from our data.
Our pick is Atletico Madrid to win, with 53% confidence. It starts from the market chance of 49.6%, and the head-to-head record, which leans to Atletico Madrid, adds 3.0 points, the most our method allows. The main risk is that we cannot see line-ups, injuries, suspensions or conditions, and Deportivo Alaves still carry 24.5% in the market.
90 minutes plus stoppage time
Updated
Best price for each outcome before the start; our pick shows its locked odds.
Prediction: Deportivo Alaves to win 54% confidence
Full prediction →
Stake 10.00 Possible return 17.35 Possible profit +7.35
Prediction: Atletico Madrid to win 38% confidence
Full prediction →
Stake 10.00 Possible return 22.90 Possible profit +12.90
Prediction: Athletic Bilbao to win 44% confidence
Full prediction →
Stake 10.00 Possible return 21.75 Possible profit +11.75
Prediction: Rayo Vallecano to win 55% confidence
Full prediction →
Stake 10.00 Possible return 17.40 Possible profit +7.40
Malaga
VfB Stuttgart
Levante UD
Athletic Bilbao
Rayo Vallecano
Elche