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Our pick: Barcelona to win at 1.665, locked when this prediction was published. It was the market favourite with the bookmaker margin removed; the analysis below is written from match data.
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Barcelona meet Real Madrid in La Liga on 25 October 2026, and the market makes Barcelona the favourite at odds of 1.665. Once the bookmaker margin is removed, the implied chance is 57.0% for Barcelona, 21.8% for Real Madrid and 21.3% for the draw.
Across all competitions combined the clubs have met 15 times since 2023, with 10 wins for Barcelona and 5 for Real Madrid, the last on 10 May 2026 in La Liga. Barcelona top the table with 24 points from 8 games and a run of W W W W W, while Real Madrid are third with 18 points. Both won on 10 October 2026, Barcelona against Getafe and Real Madrid against Villarreal.
We pick Barcelona to win, with a confidence of 60%. The market favours them, and the table, the head-to-head and recent results all lean to Barcelona, so our records moved the market chance of 57.0% up by 3.5 points. Team news is hidden from us, and Real Madrid's own good run is the main risk.
90 minutes plus stoppage time
Updated
Press an outcome to see its example return in the calculator. Our pick shows its locked odds; the others show the best current price.
Prediction: Barcelona to win 40% confidence
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Stake 10.00 Possible return 23.80 Possible profit +13.80
Prediction: Real Madrid to win 77% confidence
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Stake 10.00 Possible return 12.60 Possible profit +2.60
Prediction: Athletic Bilbao to win 44% confidence
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Stake 10.00 Possible return 21.75 Possible profit +11.75
Prediction: Deportivo Alaves to win 54% confidence
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Stake 10.00 Possible return 17.35 Possible profit +7.35
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