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Prematch Sports Prediction

Bundesliga Finished

Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs Freiburg Prediction

Our pick: Bayer 04 Leverkusen to win at 1.645, locked when this prediction was published. It was the market favourite with the bookmaker margin removed; the analysis below is written from match data.

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

vs

BayArena (Leverkusen)

Freiburg

Result

Won

Bayer 04 Leverkusen 2 · Freiburg 1

Bayer 04 Leverkusen won

How our call settled

Our pick, Bayer 04 Leverkusen to win at locked odds 1.645, won. It was published with 59% confidence.

Before the start the best price on Bayer 04 Leverkusen to win had shortened from 1.645 to 1.61, so the market moved towards this pick after it was published.

Analysis

Bayer 04 Leverkusen are the market favourites at 1.645 for the Bundesliga match with Freiburg on 18 October 2026, with the draw at 4.34 and Freiburg at 4.64. Once the margin is removed, the implied chance is 57.7% for Bayer 04 Leverkusen, 21.9% for the draw and 20.5% for Freiburg.

Across all competitions combined, the clubs have met 15 times since 2019: Bayer 04 Leverkusen won 7, Freiburg 3, and 5 ended without a winner. The last meeting was in the Bundesliga on 7 March 2026. We have no recent results for either club.

We pick Bayer 04 Leverkusen to win, at 59% confidence. The head-to-head record leans their way and raised the market chance of 57.7% by 1.7 points. Team news is not available, and that missing detail is the principal risk.

Match winner odds

90 minutes plus stoppage time

Updated

1 · Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1.645 Our pick
X · Draw 17.00
2 · Freiburg 340.00

Best price for each outcome before the start; our pick shows its locked odds.

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