UEFA Europa League Finished
Our pick: Benfica to win at 1.25, locked when this prediction was published. It was the market favourite with the bookmaker margin removed; the analysis below is written from match data.
Benfica 4 · Celtic 1
Benfica won
Our pick, Benfica to win at locked odds 1.25, won. It was published with 76% confidence.
Before the start the best price on Benfica to win had shortened from 1.25 to 1.175, so the market moved towards this pick after it was published.
Benfica and Celtic meet in the UEFA Europa League on 15 October 2026, and the market rates Benfica clear favourites at 1.25. Celtic are priced at 10.50 and the draw at 6.15.
With the margin removed, the implied chance is 75.6% for Benfica, 15.4% for the draw and 9.0% for Celtic. Across all competitions combined, the clubs have met 6 times since 2006, with Benfica winning 3, Celtic 2 and 1 ending without a winner; the last meeting was a Champions League group-stage match on 20 November 2012. We have no recent results for either side.
We pick Benfica to win at 76% confidence, because they are the market favourite once the margin is removed. The head-to-head record leans to Benfica and raised the 75.6% market chance by 0.4 points. Team news is not available, and without it Celtic cannot be written off.
90 minutes plus stoppage time
Updated
Best price for each outcome before the start; our pick shows its locked odds.
Prediction: Benfica to win 56% confidence
Full prediction →
Stake 10.00 Possible return 16.90 Possible profit +6.90
Prediction: Celta to win 41% confidence
Full prediction →
Stake 10.00 Possible return 23.25 Possible profit +13.25
Prediction: Olympique de Marseille to win 43% confidence
Full prediction →
Stake 10.00 Possible return 22.50 Possible profit +12.50
Prediction: AZ Alkmaar to win 60% confidence
Full prediction →
Stake 10.00 Possible return 15.90 Possible profit +5.90
AC Omonia
Celta
Sturm Graz
Olympique de Marseille
Ararat - Armenia
AZ Alkmaar