Premier League Finished
Our pick: Chelsea to win at 1.725, locked when this prediction was published. It was the market favourite with the bookmaker margin removed; the analysis below is written from match data.
Chelsea 5 · Bournemouth 1
Chelsea won
Our pick, Chelsea to win at locked odds 1.725, won. It was published with 57% confidence.
Before the start the best price on Chelsea to win had drifted from 1.725 to 1.784, so the market moved away from this pick after it was published.
Chelsea go into this Premier League meeting with Bournemouth on 10 October 2026 as the market favourite, priced at 1.725. That corresponds to an implied chance of 55.1%, with 21.8% for Bournemouth and 23.2% for a draw.
Over 15 meetings since 2018, in all competitions combined, Chelsea have 7 wins to Bournemouth's 3, and 5 games finished level or without a result. The last of them was in the Premier League on 30 December 2025. We have no recent-results record for either club.
Our pick is Chelsea to win, at 57% confidence. It rests on Chelsea being the market favourite once the bookmaker margin is removed, and the head-to-head record, which leans to Chelsea, lifts the market chance of 55.1% by 1.7 points. The main risk is that team news is not available to us.
90 minutes plus stoppage time
Updated
Best price for each outcome before the start; our pick shows its locked odds.
Prediction: Bournemouth to win 44% confidence
Full prediction →
Stake 10.00 Possible return 22.32 Possible profit +12.32
Prediction: Draw 28% confidence
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Stake 10.00 Possible return 33.60 Possible profit +23.60
Prediction: Manchester City to win 54% confidence
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Stake 10.00 Possible return 17.68 Possible profit +7.68
Prediction: Arsenal to win 68% confidence
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Stake 10.00 Possible return 14.00 Possible profit +4.00
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