Premier League Finished
Our pick: Newcastle United to win at 2.10, locked when this prediction was published. It was the market favourite with the bookmaker margin removed; the analysis below is written from match data.
Coventry City 4 · Newcastle United 1
Coventry City won
Our pick, Newcastle United to win at locked odds 2.10, lost. It was published with 48% confidence, leaving a 52% chance for the other outcomes, and one of them came in.
Before the start the best price on Newcastle United to win had shortened from 2.10 to 1.896, so the market moved towards this pick after it was published.
Newcastle United are the market favourite for the Premier League fixture with Coventry City on 12 October 2026, at 2.10. Their implied chance is 45.1%, against 28.4% for Coventry City and 26.5% for the draw.
The record across all competitions combined is lopsided: of 15 meetings since 1996, Newcastle United won 11 and Coventry City 2, with 2 ending without a winner. The last was a Championship game on 17 February 2010. We have no recent results for either club.
Newcastle United to win is our pick, at 48% confidence. The market chance of 45.1% is lifted by 3.0 points, the largest move our method allows, because the head-to-head record leans heavily to Newcastle United. Team news is not available, so the usual risk of a surprise applies.
90 minutes plus stoppage time
Updated
Best price for each outcome before the start; our pick shows its locked odds.
Prediction: Fulham to win 41% confidence
Full prediction →
Stake 10.00 Possible return 22.90 Possible profit +12.90
Prediction: Draw 28% confidence
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Stake 10.00 Possible return 33.60 Possible profit +23.60
Prediction: Manchester City to win 54% confidence
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Stake 10.00 Possible return 17.68 Possible profit +7.68
Prediction: Arsenal to win 68% confidence
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Stake 10.00 Possible return 14.00 Possible profit +4.00
Fulham
Ipswich Town
Nottingham Forest
Aston Villa
Manchester City
Arsenal
Everton