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Prematch Sports Prediction

Eredivisie Finished

Excelsior vs Groningen Prediction

Our pick: Excelsior to win at 2.525, locked when this prediction was published. It was the market favourite with the bookmaker margin removed; the analysis below is written from match data.

Excelsior

vs

Woudestein (Rotterdam)

Groningen

Result

Lost

Excelsior 1 · Groningen 5

Groningen won

How our call settled

Our pick, Excelsior to win at locked odds 2.525, lost. It was published with 37% confidence, leaving a 63% chance for the other outcomes, and one of them came in.

Before the start the best price on Excelsior to win had drifted from 2.525 to 2.97, so the market moved away from this pick after it was published.

Analysis

Excelsior and Groningen meet in the Eredivisie on 11 October 2026, and the market gives Excelsior a slim lead at 2.525. Groningen are offered at 2.632, and with the margin removed the implied chance is 37.6% for Excelsior, 36.1% for Groningen and 26.4% for the draw.

Groningen come out ahead in the record across all competitions combined, with 9 wins to Excelsior's 5 from 15 meetings since 2015, and 1 without a winner. The most recent was on 2 May 2026 in the Eredivisie. No recent-results record is available for either club.

Excelsior to win is the pick, with 37% confidence. They remain the market favourite once the margin is removed, but the head-to-head record leans to Groningen and lowered the 37.6% market chance by 0.8 points. As team news is not available to us, this is a close, low-confidence selection.

Match winner odds

90 minutes plus stoppage time

Updated

1 · Excelsior 2.525 Our pick
X · Draw 23.00
2 · Groningen 1.001

Best price for each outcome before the start; our pick shows its locked odds.

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