Eredivisie Finished
Our pick: Heerenveen to win at 1.755, locked when this prediction was published. It was the market favourite with the bookmaker margin removed; the analysis below is written from match data.
Heerenveen 4 · Excelsior 0
Heerenveen won
Our pick, Heerenveen to win at locked odds 1.755, won. It was published with 56% confidence.
Before the start the best price on Heerenveen to win had shortened from 1.755 to 1.625, so the market moved towards this pick after it was published.
Heerenveen are the favourites for their Eredivisie game against Excelsior on 16 October 2026, priced at 1.755. The draw is at 4.08 and Excelsior at 4.18.
With the margin removed, the implied chance is 54.1% for Heerenveen, 23.3% for the draw and 22.7% for Excelsior. Across all competitions combined, the clubs have met 15 times since 2016, with Heerenveen winning 9, Excelsior 4 and 2 ending without a winner; the latest was in the Eredivisie on 7 March 2026. We do not have recent results for either club.
We choose Heerenveen to win, with 56% confidence, because they are the market favourite once the margin is removed. The head-to-head record leans to Heerenveen and raised the 54.1% market chance by 1.8 points. Team news is not available to us, which is the main reason for caution.
90 minutes plus stoppage time
Updated
Best price for each outcome before the start; our pick shows its locked odds.
Prediction: Go Ahead Eagles to win 61% confidence
Full prediction →
Stake 10.00 Possible return 15.60 Possible profit +5.60
Prediction: Utrecht to win 57% confidence
Full prediction →
Stake 10.00 Possible return 16.56 Possible profit +6.56
Prediction: Borussia Dortmund to win 72% confidence
Full prediction →
Stake 10.00 Possible return 13.20 Possible profit +3.20
Prediction: Fenerbahce to win 59% confidence
Full prediction →
Stake 10.00 Possible return 16.25 Possible profit +6.25
Go Ahead Eagles
Telstar
Utrecht
PEC Zwolle
Sabah Baku
Borussia Dortmund
Fenerbahce
Slavia Prague