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Prematch Sports Prediction

Bundesliga Finished

Hamburger vs VfB Stuttgart Prediction

Our pick: VfB Stuttgart to win at 1.90, locked when this prediction was published. It was the market favourite with the bookmaker margin removed; the analysis below is written from match data.

Hamburger

vs

Volksparkstadion (Hamburg)

VfB Stuttgart

Result

Lost

Hamburger 1 · VfB Stuttgart 0

Hamburger won

How our call settled

Our pick, VfB Stuttgart to win at locked odds 1.90, lost. It was published with 52% confidence, leaving a 48% chance for the other outcomes, and one of them came in.

Before the start the best price on VfB Stuttgart to win had shortened from 1.90 to 1.68, so the market moved towards this pick after it was published.

Analysis

VfB Stuttgart are slight favourites at 1.90 against Hamburger in the Bundesliga on 17 October 2026. Hamburger are priced at 3.78 and the draw at 3.80.

With the bookmaker margin stripped out, the implied chance is 49.9% for VfB Stuttgart, 25.1% for Hamburger and 25.0% for the draw. Across all competitions combined, the clubs have met 15 times since 2014, with VfB Stuttgart winning 10, Hamburger 4 and 1 ending without a winner; the latest was in the Bundesliga on 12 April 2026.

We pick VfB Stuttgart to win, at 52% confidence, because they are the market favourite once the margin is removed. The head-to-head record leans their way and raised the 49.9% market chance by 2.2 points. Recent results and team news are missing from our data, so their edge over Hamburger should not be overstated.

Match winner odds

90 minutes plus stoppage time

Updated

1 · Hamburger 1.01
X · Draw 16.00
2 · VfB Stuttgart 1.90 Our pick

Best price for each outcome before the start; our pick shows its locked odds.

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