Ligue 1 Finished
Our pick: Toulouse to win at 2.256, locked when this prediction was published. It was the market favourite with the bookmaker margin removed; the analysis below is written from match data.
Le Mans 0 · Toulouse 3
Toulouse won
Our pick, Toulouse to win at locked odds 2.256, won. It was published with 43% confidence.
Before the start the best price on Toulouse to win had shortened from 2.256 to 2.19, so the market moved towards this pick after it was published.
Toulouse and Le Mans meet in Ligue 1 on 16 October 2026, and the market gives Toulouse a slight edge. Toulouse are priced at 2.256, Le Mans at 3.13 and the draw at 3.44.
Without the margin, the implied chance is 42.1% for Toulouse, 30.3% for Le Mans and 27.6% for the draw. Across all competitions combined, the clubs have met 15 times since 2000, with Toulouse winning 6, Le Mans 5 and 4 ending without a winner, though their last meeting, in Ligue 1, goes back to 30 January 2010. We hold no recent results for either team.
We go with Toulouse to win at 43% confidence, because they are the favourite once the margin is removed. The head-to-head record leans narrowly to Toulouse and raised the 42.1% market chance by 0.5 points. Team news is not available, and with so small a gap the pick carries real risk.
90 minutes plus stoppage time
Updated
Best price for each outcome before the start; our pick shows its locked odds.
Prediction: Toulouse to win 64% confidence
Full prediction →
Stake 10.00 Possible return 15.70 Possible profit +5.70
Prediction: Stade Brestois 29 to win 43% confidence
Full prediction →
Stake 10.00 Possible return 21.36 Possible profit +11.36
Prediction: Fenerbahce to win 59% confidence
Full prediction →
Stake 10.00 Possible return 16.25 Possible profit +6.25
Prediction: Borussia Dortmund to win 72% confidence
Full prediction →
Stake 10.00 Possible return 13.20 Possible profit +3.20
Troyes AC
Stade Brestois 29
Nice
Fenerbahce
Slavia Prague
Sabah Baku
Borussia Dortmund