Premier League Finished
Our pick: Manchester United to win at 2.36, locked when this prediction was published. It was the market favourite with the bookmaker margin removed; the analysis below is written from match data.
Leeds United 1 · Manchester United 1
Match drawn
Our pick, Manchester United to win at locked odds 2.36, lost. It was published with 43% confidence, leaving a 57% chance for the other outcomes, and one of them came in.
Before the start the best price on Manchester United to win had drifted from 2.36 to 2.705, so the market moved away from this pick after it was published.
Manchester United are the market favourite against Leeds United in the Premier League on 18 October 2026, at 2.36. The implied chance is 40.3%, with Leeds United on 33.3% and the draw on 26.4%.
Across all competitions combined, Manchester United have won 8 of the 15 meetings since 2004 and Leeds United 2, while 5 ended without a winner. The most recent was a club friendly on 12 August 2026. We have no recent results for either club.
Our pick is Manchester United to win, at 43% confidence. The head-to-head record leans towards Manchester United and raised the market chance of 40.3% by 3.0 points, the most our method allows. Team news is not available, so the risk of a surprise remains high.
90 minutes plus stoppage time
Updated
Best price for each outcome before the start; our pick shows its locked odds.
Prediction: Como to win 42% confidence
Full prediction →
Stake 10.00 Possible return 22.56 Possible profit +12.56
Prediction: Draw 28% confidence
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Stake 10.00 Possible return 33.60 Possible profit +23.60
Prediction: Manchester City to win 54% confidence
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Stake 10.00 Possible return 17.68 Possible profit +7.68
Prediction: Fulham to win 41% confidence
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Stake 10.00 Possible return 22.90 Possible profit +12.90
Como
Ipswich Town
Nottingham Forest
Aston Villa
Manchester City
Coventry City
Fulham