Premier League Finished
Our pick: Manchester City to win at 2.52, locked when this prediction was published. It was the market favourite with the bookmaker margin removed; the analysis below is written from match data.
Liverpool 0 · Manchester City 3
Manchester City won
Our pick, Manchester City to win at locked odds 2.52, won. It was published with 38% confidence.
Before the start the best price on Manchester City to win had shortened from 2.52 to 1.93, so the market moved towards this pick after it was published.
Manchester City edge the market for the Premier League clash with Liverpool on 11 October 2026, priced at 2.52. Their implied chance of 37.7% is only just above Liverpool's 36.5%, with the draw at 25.8%.
Across all competitions combined, 15 meetings since 2021 have produced 6 wins for Manchester City and 5 for Liverpool, while 4 ended without a winner. They last met in the FA Cup on 4 April 2026. We do not have recent results for either club.
We pick Manchester City to win, with 38% confidence. They lead the market once the bookmaker margin is removed, and the head-to-head record, which leans to Manchester City, raises the market chance of 37.7% by 0.5 points. It is a thin call, made thinner still by the lack of team news.
90 minutes plus stoppage time
Updated
Best price for each outcome before the start; our pick shows its locked odds.
Prediction: Manchester City to win 54% confidence
Full prediction →
Stake 10.00 Possible return 17.68 Possible profit +7.68
Prediction: Liverpool to win 67% confidence
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Stake 10.00 Possible return 14.75 Possible profit +4.75
Prediction: Manchester City to win 89% confidence
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Stake 10.00 Possible return 10.70 Possible profit +0.70
Prediction: Draw 28% confidence
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Stake 10.00 Possible return 33.60 Possible profit +23.60
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