Liverpool vs Villarreal Prediction

Liverpool face Villarreal in the UEFA Champions League league stage on 20 October 2026. The market makes Liverpool the favourite at decimal odds of 1.475, with the draw at 4.76 and Villarreal at 6.05. Once the bookmaker margin is removed, the implied chance is 64.4% for Liverpool, 19.9% for the draw and 15.7% for Villarreal.

In this league stage Liverpool have played 2 and won 2 for 6 points and fifth place, while Villarreal have won 1 and lost 1 for 3 points and fourteenth place. Across all competitions combined the two sides have met 4 times since 2016, with Liverpool winning 3 and Villarreal 1, the last meeting being on 3 May 2022 in a Champions League play-off. Recently Liverpool beat LASK Linz on 14 October 2026, while Villarreal beat Napoli on 13 October 2026.

Our call is Liverpool to win, with a confidence of 67%. The table, the head-to-head record and recent results all lean to Liverpool, and together they moved the market chance of 64.4% up by 3.0 points, which is the most our method allows. The main risk is that we cannot see line-ups, injuries, suspensions or team news, and the records behind the move are thin.