La Liga Finished
Our pick: Real Sociedad to win at 2.21, locked when this prediction was published. It was the market favourite with the bookmaker margin removed; the analysis below is written from match data.
Malaga 2 · Real Sociedad 5
Real Sociedad won
Our pick, Real Sociedad to win at locked odds 2.21, won. It was published with 44% confidence.
Before the start the best price on Real Sociedad to win had shortened from 2.21 to 2.04, so the market moved towards this pick after it was published.
Malaga and Real Sociedad are due to meet in La Liga on 18 October 2026. Real Sociedad are the favourite at 2.21, an implied chance of 42.9%, ahead of Malaga at 29.9% and the draw at 27.1%.
Across all competitions combined, the 15 meetings since 2011 brought 6 wins for Real Sociedad, 4 for Malaga and 5 games without a winner. The last meeting was in the Copa del Rey on 7 January 2024. We hold no recent results for either club.
The pick is Real Sociedad to win, at 44% confidence: the head-to-head record leans their way and raised the market chance of 42.9% by 1.0 points. Their lead is modest, and because team news is not available to us, Malaga, at 29.9%, could well spoil it.
90 minutes plus stoppage time
Updated
Best price for each outcome before the start; our pick shows its locked odds.
Prediction: Deportivo Alaves to win 54% confidence
Full prediction →
Stake 10.00 Possible return 17.35 Possible profit +7.35
Prediction: Real Sociedad to win 61% confidence
Full prediction →
Stake 10.00 Possible return 15.80 Possible profit +5.80
Prediction: Athletic Bilbao to win 44% confidence
Full prediction →
Stake 10.00 Possible return 21.75 Possible profit +11.75
Prediction: Rayo Vallecano to win 55% confidence
Full prediction →
Stake 10.00 Possible return 17.40 Possible profit +7.40
Deportivo Alaves
Lillestrom
Levante UD
Athletic Bilbao
Rayo Vallecano
Elche