UEFA Champions League Finished
Our pick: Villarreal to win at 2.24, locked when this prediction was published. It was the market favourite with the bookmaker margin removed; the analysis below is written from match data.
Villarreal 3 · Napoli 1
Villarreal won
Our pick, Villarreal to win at locked odds 2.24, won. It was published with 43% confidence.
Before the start the best price on Villarreal to win had drifted from 2.24 to 2.25, so the market moved away from this pick after it was published.
Villarreal are the market favourites against Napoli in the UEFA Champions League on 13 October 2026, priced at 2.24. Napoli stand at 3.13 and the draw at 3.48.
With the bookmaker margin removed, the implied chance is 42.4% for Villarreal, 30.3% for Napoli and 27.3% for the draw. Across all competitions combined, the clubs have met 7 times since 2011, with Villarreal winning 3, Napoli 2 and 2 ending without a winner; the latest, on 17 December 2022, came in a friendly club tournament. No recent results are available for either team.
Our pick is Villarreal to win, at 43% confidence, because they are the favourite once the margin is removed. The head-to-head record leans to Villarreal and raised the 42.4% market chance by 0.8 points. Team news is hidden from us and the last meeting was a friendly, so the record carries little weight.
90 minutes plus stoppage time
Updated
Best price for each outcome before the start; our pick shows its locked odds.
Prediction: Liverpool to win 67% confidence
Full prediction →
Stake 10.00 Possible return 14.75 Possible profit +4.75
Prediction: Napoli to win 57% confidence
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Stake 10.00 Possible return 15.84 Possible profit +5.84
Prediction: Roma to win 37% confidence
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Stake 10.00 Possible return 24.56 Possible profit +14.56
Prediction: Villarreal to win 45% confidence
Full prediction →
Stake 10.00 Possible return 21.00 Possible profit +11.00
Liverpool
Bodo-Glimt
Roma
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