UEFA Champions League Finished
Our pick: Real Madrid to win at 2.04, locked when this prediction was published. It was the market favourite with the bookmaker margin removed; the analysis below is written from match data.
Roma 3 · Real Madrid 4
Real Madrid won
Our pick, Real Madrid to win at locked odds 2.04, won. It was published with 47% confidence.
Before the start the best price on Real Madrid to win had shortened from 2.04 to 1.86, so the market moved towards this pick after it was published.
Real Madrid are the market favourites against Roma in the UEFA Champions League on 14 October 2026, priced at 2.04. Roma are at 3.28 and the draw at 3.86.
After the margin is removed, the implied chance is 46.5% for Real Madrid, 28.9% for Roma and 24.6% for the draw. Across all competitions combined, the clubs have met 14 times since 2002, with Real Madrid winning 8 and Roma 6, so every meeting produced a winner; the last was a club friendly on 11 August 2019. Recent results are missing for both clubs.
We pick Real Madrid to win, at 47% confidence, as they lead the market once the margin is gone. The head-to-head record leans to Real Madrid and raised the 46.5% market chance by 0.8 points. That record is old and its latest entry was a friendly, and team news is hidden from us, so Roma remain a live threat.
90 minutes plus stoppage time
Updated
Best price for each outcome before the start; our pick shows its locked odds.
Prediction: Roma to win 87% confidence
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Stake 10.00 Possible return 10.90 Possible profit +0.90
Prediction: Real Madrid to win 77% confidence
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Stake 10.00 Possible return 12.60 Possible profit +2.60
Prediction: Roma to win 37% confidence
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Stake 10.00 Possible return 24.56 Possible profit +14.56
Prediction: Fenerbahce to win 59% confidence
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Stake 10.00 Possible return 16.25 Possible profit +6.25
Slovan Bratislava
RasenBallsport Leipzig
Napoli
Fenerbahce
Slavia Prague