La Liga Finished
Our pick: Real Madrid to win at 1.304, locked when this prediction was published. It was the market favourite with the bookmaker margin removed; the analysis below is written from match data.
Real Madrid 1 · Villarreal 0
Real Madrid won
Our pick, Real Madrid to win at locked odds 1.304, won. It was published with 74% confidence.
Before the start the best price on Real Madrid to win had drifted from 1.304 to 1.315, so the market moved away from this pick after it was published.
Real Madrid take on Villarreal in La Liga on 10 October 2026. The bookmaker line makes Real Madrid the favourite at 1.304, which works out at an implied chance of 72.7%, ahead of the draw on 16.1% and Villarreal on 11.3%.
Across all competitions combined, 15 meetings since 2019 have produced 8 wins for Real Madrid, 2 for Villarreal and 5 draws or ties. The most recent was on 24 January 2026 in La Liga. We hold no recent results for either side.
The pick is Real Madrid to win, at 74% confidence. The market chance of 72.7% was lifted by 1.6 points, since the head-to-head record leans to Real Madrid. Team news is not available to us, so an upset by Villarreal is the chief caveat.
90 minutes plus stoppage time
Updated
Best price for each outcome before the start; our pick shows its locked odds.
Prediction: Villarreal to win 45% confidence
Full prediction →
Stake 10.00 Possible return 21.00 Possible profit +11.00
Prediction: Liverpool to win 67% confidence
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Stake 10.00 Possible return 14.75 Possible profit +4.75
Prediction: Real Madrid to win 77% confidence
Full prediction →
Stake 10.00 Possible return 12.60 Possible profit +2.60
Prediction: Athletic Bilbao to win 44% confidence
Full prediction →
Stake 10.00 Possible return 21.75 Possible profit +11.75
Valencia
Liverpool
RasenBallsport Leipzig
Levante UD
Athletic Bilbao