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Prematch Sports Prediction

NHL Finished

Toronto Maple Leafs vs Montreal Canadiens Prediction

Our pick: Toronto Maple Leafs to win at 1.885, locked when this prediction was published. It was the market favourite with the bookmaker margin removed; the analysis below is written from match data.

Toronto Maple Leafs

vs

Scotiabank Arena (Toronto)

Montreal Canadiens

Result

Lost

Toronto Maple Leafs 2 · Montreal Canadiens 3

Montreal Canadiens won

How our call settled

Our pick, Toronto Maple Leafs to win at locked odds 1.885, lost. It was published with 50% confidence, leaving a 50% chance for Montreal Canadiens to win, the outcome that came in.

Before the start the best price on Toronto Maple Leafs to win had drifted from 1.885 to 1.90, so the market moved away from this pick after it was published.

Analysis

Toronto Maple Leafs take on Montreal Canadiens on 29 September 2026, a fixture listed under NHL, at Scotiabank Arena (Toronto). The bookmaker line makes Toronto Maple Leafs the favourite at 1.885, which is 50.4% once the bookmaker margin is removed, against Montreal Canadiens at 1.912 (49.6%).

The head-to-head record in our data feed, all competitions combined, shows 15 meetings since 2024: Toronto Maple Leafs won 9 and Montreal Canadiens won 6. The most recent meeting was on 19 September 2026, in the NHL Preseason Matches. Our records hold no recent completed matches for Toronto Maple Leafs and Montreal Canadiens.

The call is Toronto Maple Leafs to win, overtime and shootout included, at 50% confidence, which is the margin-free price of the favourite rather than a claim to beat the bookmaker. Line-ups, injuries and the starting goaltenders are not available, so late team news is the main risk to this pick.

Match winner odds

Overtime and shootout included

Updated

1 · Toronto Maple Leafs 1.885 Our pick
2 · Montreal Canadiens 1.025

Best price for each outcome before the start; our pick shows its locked odds.

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