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Prematch Sports Prediction

NHL Finished

New York Islanders vs Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction

Our pick: Tampa Bay Lightning to win at 1.74, locked when this prediction was published. It was the market favourite with the bookmaker margin removed; the analysis below is written from match data.

New York Islanders

vs

UBS (Elmont)

Tampa Bay Lightning

Result

Won

New York Islanders 3 · Tampa Bay Lightning 5

Tampa Bay Lightning won

How our call settled

Our pick, Tampa Bay Lightning to win at locked odds 1.74, won. It was published with 56% confidence.

Before the start the best price on Tampa Bay Lightning to win had shortened from 1.74 to 1.55, so the market moved towards this pick after it was published.

Analysis

New York Islanders take on Tampa Bay Lightning on 10 October 2026, a fixture listed under NHL. The bookmaker line makes Tampa Bay Lightning the favourite at 1.74, which is 54.6% once the bookmaker margin is removed, against New York Islanders at 2.096 (45.4%).

There is no head-to-head record between New York Islanders and Tampa Bay Lightning in our data feed, so past meetings play no part in this call. In our results records, New York Islanders won 2 and lost 2 of their last 4 completed matches. In our results records, Tampa Bay Lightning won 3 and lost 1 of their last 4 completed matches.

The call is Tampa Bay Lightning to win, overtime and shootout included, at 56% confidence: the market's margin-free 54.6% for Tampa Bay Lightning, moved up 1.6 points by recent results; while our results records are thin, the move is limited to 3 points. Line-ups, injuries and the starting goaltenders are not available, so late team news is the main risk to this pick.

Match winner odds

Overtime and shootout included

Updated

1 · New York Islanders 11.00
2 · Tampa Bay Lightning 1.74 Our pick

Best price for each outcome before the start; our pick shows its locked odds.

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