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Prematch Sports Prediction

NHL Finished

Toronto Maple Leafs vs New York Islanders Prediction

Our pick: Toronto Maple Leafs to win at 1.775, locked when this prediction was published. It was the market favourite with the bookmaker margin removed; the analysis below is written from match data.

Toronto Maple Leafs

vs

Scotiabank Arena (Toronto)

New York Islanders

Result

Lost

Toronto Maple Leafs 1 · New York Islanders 4

New York Islanders won

How our call settled

Our pick, Toronto Maple Leafs to win at locked odds 1.775, lost. It was published with 52% confidence, leaving a 48% chance for New York Islanders to win, the outcome that came in.

Before the start the best price on Toronto Maple Leafs to win had shortened from 1.775 to 1.77, so the market moved towards this pick after it was published.

Analysis

Toronto Maple Leafs take on New York Islanders on 17 October 2026, a fixture listed under NHL. The bookmaker line makes Toronto Maple Leafs the favourite at 1.775, which is 53.5% once the bookmaker margin is removed, against New York Islanders at 2.045 (46.5%).

There is no head-to-head record between Toronto Maple Leafs and New York Islanders in our data feed, so past meetings play no part in this call. In our results records, Toronto Maple Leafs won 2 and lost 3 of their last 5 completed matches. In our results records, New York Islanders won 3 and lost 2 of their last 5 completed matches.

The call is Toronto Maple Leafs to win, overtime and shootout included, at 52% confidence: the market's margin-free 53.5% for Toronto Maple Leafs, moved down 1.4 points by recent results; the move is limited to 8 points. Line-ups, injuries and the starting goaltenders are not available, so late team news is the main risk to this pick.

Match winner odds

Overtime and shootout included

Updated

1 · Toronto Maple Leafs 1.775 Our pick
2 · New York Islanders 1.165

Best price for each outcome before the start; our pick shows its locked odds.

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