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Prematch Sports Prediction

NHL Finished

New York Rangers vs Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction

Our pick: Tampa Bay Lightning to win at 1.784, locked when this prediction was published. It was the market favourite with the bookmaker margin removed; the analysis below is written from match data.

New York Rangers

vs

Madison Square Garden (New York)

Tampa Bay Lightning

Result

Lost

New York Rangers 4 · Tampa Bay Lightning 1

New York Rangers won

How our call settled

Our pick, Tampa Bay Lightning to win at locked odds 1.784, lost. It was published with 53% confidence, leaving a 47% chance for New York Rangers to win, the outcome that came in.

Before the start the best price on Tampa Bay Lightning to win had shortened from 1.784 to 1.62, so the market moved towards this pick after it was published.

Analysis

New York Rangers face Tampa Bay Lightning in the NHL on 13 October 2026. Tampa Bay Lightning are the market favourite on the match winner, overtime and shootout included, at 1.784, against 2.03 for New York Rangers. Removing the bookmaker margin gives an implied chance of 53.2% for Tampa Bay Lightning and 46.8% for New York Rangers.

We have no head-to-head record for these teams in our data, but they did play on 1 October 2026, when New York Rangers won. Each team won 4 and lost 1 of its last 5. Tampa Bay Lightning most recently beat New York Islanders on 10 October 2026, and New York Rangers lost to Washington Capitals on 9 October 2026.

We pick Tampa Bay Lightning to win, with a confidence of 53%. They are the favourite in the market, and with the recent results level our records left the market chance of 53.2% unchanged. The margin is slim, and line-ups, injuries and starting goaltenders are not available to us.

Match winner odds

Overtime and shootout included

Updated

1 · New York Rangers 1.025
2 · Tampa Bay Lightning 1.784 Our pick

Best price for each outcome before the start; our pick shows its locked odds.

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