Skip to content
Prematch Sports Prediction

NHL Finished

Toronto Maple Leafs vs Ottawa Senators Prediction

Our pick: Toronto Maple Leafs to win at 1.675, locked when this prediction was published. It was the market favourite with the bookmaker margin removed; the analysis below is written from match data.

Toronto Maple Leafs

vs

Scotiabank Arena (Toronto)

Ottawa Senators

Result

Lost

Toronto Maple Leafs 2 · Ottawa Senators 3

Ottawa Senators won

How our call settled

Our pick, Toronto Maple Leafs to win at locked odds 1.675, lost. It was published with 56% confidence, leaving a 44% chance for Ottawa Senators to win, the outcome that came in.

Before the start the best price on Toronto Maple Leafs to win had drifted from 1.675 to 1.90, so the market moved away from this pick after it was published.

Analysis

Toronto Maple Leafs take on Ottawa Senators on 3 October 2026, a fixture listed under NHL. The bookmaker line makes Toronto Maple Leafs the favourite at 1.675, which is 56.7% once the bookmaker margin is removed, against Ottawa Senators at 2.192 (43.3%).

The head-to-head record in our data feed, all competitions combined, shows 15 meetings since 2025: Toronto Maple Leafs won 7 and Ottawa Senators won 8. Toronto Maple Leafs have played 2 games in the NHL this season (1 won, 1 lost), form W L.

The call is Toronto Maple Leafs to win, overtime and shootout included, at 56% confidence: the market's margin-free 56.7% for Toronto Maple Leafs, moved down 0.5 points by the head-to-head record; while our results records are thin, the move is limited to 3 points. Line-ups, injuries and the starting goaltenders are not available, so late team news is the main risk to this pick.

Match winner odds

Overtime and shootout included

Updated

1 · Toronto Maple Leafs 1.675 Our pick
2 · Ottawa Senators 1.04

Best price for each outcome before the start; our pick shows its locked odds.

Related picks