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Prematch Sports Prediction

NHL Finished

Tampa Bay Lightning vs Philadelphia Flyers Prediction

Our pick: Tampa Bay Lightning to win at 1.54, locked when this prediction was published. It was the market favourite with the bookmaker margin removed; the analysis below is written from match data.

Tampa Bay Lightning

vs

Benchmark International Arena (Tampa)

Philadelphia Flyers

Result

Won

Tampa Bay Lightning 4 · Philadelphia Flyers 1

Tampa Bay Lightning won

How our call settled

Our pick, Tampa Bay Lightning to win at locked odds 1.54, won. It was published with 65% confidence.

Before the start the best price on Tampa Bay Lightning to win had shortened from 1.54 to 1.45, so the market moved towards this pick after it was published.

Analysis

Tampa Bay Lightning take on Philadelphia Flyers on 5 October 2026, a fixture listed under NHL. The bookmaker line makes Tampa Bay Lightning the favourite at 1.54, which is 61.7% once the bookmaker margin is removed, against Philadelphia Flyers at 2.48 (38.3%).

The head-to-head record in our data feed, all competitions combined, shows 15 meetings since 2021: Tampa Bay Lightning won 11 and Philadelphia Flyers won 4. Tampa Bay Lightning have played 1 game in the NHL this season (0 won, 1 lost), form L. Philadelphia Flyers have played 2 games this season (0 won, 2 lost), form L L.

The call is Tampa Bay Lightning to win, overtime and shootout included, at 65% confidence: the market's margin-free 61.7% for Tampa Bay Lightning, moved up 3.0 points by the head-to-head record and recent results; while our results records are thin, the move is limited to 3 points. Line-ups, injuries and the starting goaltenders are not available, so late team news is the main risk to this pick.

Match winner odds

Overtime and shootout included

Updated

1 · Tampa Bay Lightning 1.54 Our pick
2 · Philadelphia Flyers 9.10

Best price for each outcome before the start; our pick shows its locked odds.

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